CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-08-04T04:49:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-08-04T04:49ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26326/-1
CME Note: Second of two CMEs seen to the north and west in SOHO/STEREO A imagery starting around 2023-08-04T04:17Z which is inferred to be in association with a long duration M1.9-class solar flare near the vicinity of Active Region 3386 (N12W46) due to the complex, sympathetic eruptive signature containing multiple areas of dimming. The CME front seen first near 2023-08-04T04:49Z appears to be embedded within the first, and is directed more westerly. Please see DONKI entry for additional details on the event signature. Arrival signature: Likely an arrival of a flux rope at L1, associated with an increase of B total to over 10nT, with rotation of magnetic field components. Confirmed by the LASSOS team.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-08-07T01:15Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-08-07T06:08Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 543.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 340.449 Acceleration: 1.73350 Duration in seconds: 263971.02 Duration in days: 3.0552202 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 1.73 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 798.0 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 07/08/2023 Time: 06:08 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 41.43 hour(s)
Difference: -4.88 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2023-08-05T07:49Z
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